Markets Calling for More Rate Cuts from the Bank of Canada - The Loonie Hour Episode 145

I don't know what you guys are seeing but there are plenty of small businesses that have closed up shop in Metro Vancouver. If it's not clear that we've had a hard landing based on todays retail data, it will become obvious later as we continue trending in this direction.

I've been watching you guys for about a year and a half now and I still appreciate your insights. I don't have the bandwidth to keep up on the topics you guys discuss so I absolutely need this podcast. Keith, Steve and Rich, you're the perfect balance of real people & professionals, please keep up the great work. Cheers.

I always wondered, especially after living in other countries such as India, how much new Canadians send back to their home countries every month. I know a lot of families rely on their young family members living a working abroad to send money home every month. I wonder if that amount of money leaving the Canadian economy is substantial in any respect and growing in recent years.

Keith is based af.

Always look forward to the Loonie Hour 😊

It's way worse than you think. People are looking at what they see, not the unseen. These guys say recession because people are paying 10k more on their mortgage. No - they lost 10k a year and the way bigger 50k a year in appreciation stopped. Without this latter figure nothing in Canada adds up. Enjoy.

If we do hit a situation where there are significant housing price drops, I think it's likely to cause a cascade because of all of the risk we currently have in the market. Marginal landlords losing money every month, with rents falling, fixed-payment variable mortgages renewing and possibly even being underwater, an increased jobless rate (possibly with part-time jobs masking some of the actual damage), and perhaps some fraudulent mortgages as well.

I think Rich is mistaken about DEI leaving. They're just rebranding and going more below surface level. HR is still going to be pushing the same overall policies, you can see it right in Microsoft among other companies press releases.

All signs point to bitcoin going up a lot.

36:13 investors and home owners are seeking liquidity from equity in homes to pay off debts and oay back missed mortgage payments, when they go to the banks, they are denied access to their equity unless they sell the home. this seems like quatatitve tightening.

Because the Bank of Canada does what the markets demand, not what inflation demands. I did not know that.

Who’s behind Austin Private Wealth LLC? 🧐

How is the housing Halifax market so ridiculously high?? There's barely any condos, and what's there are prices close to Toronto and Ottawa. It makes no sense. There's no industry or population or opportunities, just lots and lots of lyme disease.

In the Okanagan, rents peaked 12 months ago as well. Pretty much flat since then.

At this stage we need to see rents and home prices to actually drop not just slow. Leveraging to real estate is way too high. I really can't see BOC dropping their rate below 3.5% anytime soon because of the real estate sector. And a soft landing? I just can't see that with the Canadian economy vs the real estate sector so incredibly divergent. Real estate prices were out of hand back in 2009. Wages haven't even come close to tracking home prices for 20 yrs and house prices are still over 25% above long term trend lines for the industry. WRT to the July cut. BOC will cut. But then they won't in Sept.

Great episode, gents!

From the Trump speech ... "drill baby, drill". He wants cheap energy. Hello Keystone?

I'm a closet loonie hour fan

This was a great episode. The summary at the end was perfect.

Rich’s top call still holding through 2 trading days! Why do we want continued housing price appreciation like it’s been if we’re now going back to a labour market where capital has the leverage over labour and given that homes are still completely historically unaffordable relative to current wages? It’s intended to be a dwelling not an investment vehicle and as Keith and Rich have both outlined on this pod, it is a non-productive asset. Maybe all these overnight realtor converts can go find work elsewhere rather than riding the coattails of a speculative bubble in dwellings.