How 2023 Broke Our Climate Models with Neil deGrasse Tyson & Gavin Schmidt
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Published 2024-01-23
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Science meets pop culture on StarTalk! Astrophysicist & Hayden Planetarium director Neil deGrasse Tyson, his comic co-hosts, guest celebrities & scientists discuss astronomy, physics, and everything else about life in the universe. Keep Looking Up!
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00:00 - Introduction: Climate Update
2:00 - 2023 Hottest Year on Record
6:55 - Why Our Predictions Were Wrong
8:49 - Factoring New Data & The Impact of Aerosols
11:52 - Could We Use Aerosols to Cool the Earth?
12:57 - We Have Agency
15:10 - What Happens to The Carbon in the Ocean?
All Comments (21)
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What was your biggest takeaway from this Explainer?
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7:00 "When we don't understand something, there's science to be done." I love that statement
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The irony of it all is that the climate or the earth does not give a dime about us human beings. It is not about saving the planet, it is about saving us!
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A big problem today revolves around, "The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don't know.” Some stubbornly refuse to acknowledge the second part, while others use it to dismiss what we do know.
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The kidding around kept reminding me of the talk show in Don’t Look Up. That’s probably the most useful emotion we can express on YouTube though
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There was an episode of the Drew Carey Show where Drew complained about how cold the Cleveland winter was, so he angrily sprayed aerosol from his front door into the sky in order to accelerate global warming. That scene has stuck with me for over 20 years and the irony of it coming full circle is terrifying
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I remember the late Brian Kaye saying that the only thing we can reliably predict about non-linear systems is that our predictions will probably be wrong.
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You guys are surprised that the models didn't predict this? The IPCC, Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report declared: “The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future exact climate states is not possible.”
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You could tell me tomorrow in your voice we all are going to die and I’d take comfort hearing it from you. And take the rest of my time accordingly.
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I'd like to point out that this was noticed in 2001. When air traffic was grounded for just a few days after the Sept-11 attack, the increase in warming was measured. As I recall, "pan evaporation rates" are daily measurements made in standard pans, as they are topped off each day. The effect of aerosols was dubbed "global dimming" and the irony that pollution was mitigating global warming was very much noted, too.
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Niel made a mistake there : a millionth of a meter is not 1/1000 cm, but rather 1/1000 mm (or 1/10000 cm)
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Some people think the sooner we act, the better. I take the opposite view, because almost anything we do has unintended consequences. Better to continue to study and learn and improve technology, so that future solutions are not as burdensome, more likely to succeed, and have fewer unforeseen consequences.
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i like how they manage to keep a straight face when they talk about how warm it was
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Best climate graph ever I really liked the tornado. It really visualizes change.
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Living out here on an island in the middle of the Pacific with a volcano on it, we know that the particulates in our air change our climate and the other thing that he didn’t really talk about, but is a big factor is that giant volcano that blew up and sent water aerosol vapor into the stratosphere, which is a big big deal and that’s why we were a bit hotter in 2023 because of that volcano
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Many years ago, there were one or two scientists pointing out the direct heating affect, from the energy released into the atmosphere, of the fossile fuels - basically the BTUs/calories in the fuel burned, which is millions of tons a year.
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Great content! My question is regarding the affects of space weather on the surrounding planets, moons, and asteroids within the solar system as predicters of the affects of space weather on the earth. While solar storms may be the largest predicter to date of space weather, I am also curious about other systems such as magnetic storms that happen in the solar system which can also influence the geomagnetic storms on earth.
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Gavin Schmidt took a lot of shots in this lol, he handled it well
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"Ash tray physicist?" Dr. Schmidt is my second-favorite climatologist.
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I would like that Neil and company speak to the effects of the end of an Ice-Age event. and how that could possibly explain an accelerated heating of the Earth. There is very little information about this currently.
