The next earthquake: Is time running out for Europe’s largest city?
177,931
Published 2023-08-23
Experts warn that a magnitude 7 or above earthquake could strike the city at any given time in the next 30 years.
According to Istanbul municipality's estimations, at least 250,000 buildings will face moderate to severe damage, threatening the lives of 16 million residents living in the metropolis.
"We are not ready," said Naci Gorur, a geologist and professor at Istanbul Technical University. "I'm afraid an earthquake in Istanbul will cause even more destruction than what we witnessed in the Kahramanmaras earthquake that struck Turkey's south in February 2023."
Istanbul suffers from densely populated areas with a problematic building stock. The government believes rebuilding the entire city is the only solution.
But critics say rebuilding efforts are mostly concentrated in profitable areas, favoring the country's construction industry.
"We cannot keep building anywhere and everywhere just because it will sell. There is absolutely no control for urban expansion and density" said Yasemin Didem Aktas, a structural engineer from University College London.
"It's not a question of if but when," said Osman Ozbulut, a professor of civil engineering at University of Virginia. "We need to start designing buildings to a higher standard if we want to be ready."
Watch the video above to understand how a mega city prepares for a major disaster.
#CNBC #TurkeyEarthquake2023 #Istanbul #TurkeyEarthquake
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All Comments (21)
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Turkey is a special place for me, i hope the historical sites will survive for future generations to appreciate. I love it's history and food
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The President is not supportive of urban renovation, he is supportive of urban renewal that priorities profit over safety.
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Earthquakes: I am gonna destroy your cities. Turkish people: Who cares? Just gimme cheap houses.
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It is calculated that the probability of an earthquake of 7.2 or higher in Istanbul by 2030 is 80%. 20 million people live in Istanbul. Since there is an earthquake, the loss of life can reach up to 1 million. Istanbul earthquake will be one of the biggest disasters in the history of the world with its human and economic losses. It is now too late to change this and there is almost nothing that can be done. The south coast of Istanbul is very vulnerable to earthquakes and buildings built before 1999 were not built to withstand an earthquake at 7.2 sides. Hundreds of thousands of buildings will be demolished. After the earthquake, most of the main roads will be blocked due to the earthquake or traffic, and entry and exit from most parts of the city will be impossible. Electricity, water, sewerage, internet infrastructures will collapse in the city and food and water will not be distributed to the city. Even if all aid organizations in the world are mobilized, this is not possible in the first 72 hours, the next 72 hours or later. The only solution for the evacuation of people in the city may be to evacuate the city on foot. This will be a terrible tragedy and may be one of the closest apocalyptic things the world has ever experienced. It will take more than a year to rebuild the infrastructure in many parts of Istanbul, demolish the damaged buildings and remove the debris. It will not be possible for me to live in Istanbul during this time. The region will probably be evacuated for security reasons. Istanbul pays half of the tax in Turkey, 80% of imports and exports are made by Istanbul companies. The management of all financial institutions and big companies of Turkey is in Istanbul. if istanbul is destroyed, half of turkey's economy because of istanbul will disappear and the industrial and commercial activities in the remaining half of Turkey will decrease by half. that means a 75% contraction of the economy over the course of a year. In the event of the Istanbul earthquake, the people in the rest of Turkey will also be in need of financial assistance.
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The last earthquake of this year should have been a wake up call for Turkish authorities. Unfortunately the corruption and neglect runs deep in the Turkish government. I really hope beautiful Istanbul is spared the worst fate. Best wishes from Sweden 🇸🇪❤🇹🇷
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As in most countries Turkey has focused its earthquake mitigation efforts in structures frequented by the rich. Much of the population will be crushed in the pancaking of cheap mid rise housing structures.
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That hospital held it down. Earthquakes are no joke 👀😶👀
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I had no idea it's so easy to isolate buildings. So the overpromoted active dampener systems are really only for skyscrapers
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Please do a video like this on Anchorage, Alaska!
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20 million people! No way it can be evacuated😞 It will be one of the biggest disasters of history
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To be honest, now it is too late for a urban renewal. I think a foreigner or Turkish person who doesnt live in İistanbul doesnt understand real situation in İstanbul. Maybe İstanbul is most complicated big city in world. Earthquake is so close, however urban renewal still is far away from enough. Considering national interest of Turkey such as economy and national security and surely life of people, İstanbul had to been evacuated immediately. Goverment has to encourage companies to transfer their hqs to other cities. In additon to these, goverment has to encourage İstanbul people to move to other cities and surely, it requires master plans and operational plans. Somehow, İstanbul population has to reduce. By the way, company plazas which will be evacuated can be used as housing. Also, remote working is very important and useful for evacuating of İstanbul.
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Istanbul provides more than half of Türkiye's economy. When an earthquake occurs, it will be a big problem for Türkiye.
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Yes, and the government that did not prevent risks in other parts of turkey is still in power
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Sandbag contruction. 80% cheaper and effective.
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The deaths from the Earthquake in February must be over 100000. Since 270000 buildings were destroyed and in vast majority of them were whole families living. Now imagine a city like Istanbul with thousands of buildings and 10 million people being packed in one area. The results of an earthquake there, will be absolutely devastating and a huge humanitarian catastrophe. Horrifying…
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For those visiting or living in Turkey - the whole country is an earthquake zone. Scientists continue to warn that at any moment at any spot a devastating earthquake can happen. For Istanbul, this was known for decades. In 1999 (devastating earthquake nearby with ‘only’ 1000 deaths in Istanbul) the city’s population was 8 million. Now the next one is up and the city has 20+ million people. So those who can, please please please leave the city. Even if you survive in Nisantasi, Etiler or Kadıköy, you will not be able to leave, there’ll be total devastation surrounding every spot, raging fires, no water, electricity, no food, no help from anyone. If you can’t leave, please contact your government and remind them of the dangers. Obviously try to follow local guidelines and emergency personnel, but we need help from other countries now before it’s too late. 😢
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Ok now, we f.cked up
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They should start the rehabilitation ASAP.
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How did they get all those glowing triangles up in the air? it sure look dangerous!
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Seismic isolation isn't the solution for regular buildings such as residential buildings. But for regular buildings life safety isn't the only level of earthquake safety. In Turkey there are some parts of country which are waiting for immediate earthquakes. For the buildings in those zones can be chosen the immediate usage level.
