The Chart to Watch for a Market Top in July!

Published 2024-07-05
The first quarter of 2024 was an "everything rally" with value and growth stocks alike moving higher. Q2 since the mid-April low for the S&P 500 has been a more narrow advance, with technology thriving and pretty much everything else struggling on a relative basis. Today we'll talk through our sector relative charts, including one chart that has a place of honor on our "Market Top Checklist" available to Market Misbehavior Premium Members!

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Dave helps active investors and financial advisors make more informed investment decisions, inject more discipline into their investment process, and enrich relationships with their clients. Feel better about making better decisions!

Dave is the Chief Market Strategist at StockCharts.com, where he helps investors minimize behavioral biases through technical analysis. He is a frequent host on StockCharts TV, and he relates mindfulness techniques to investor decision making in his blog, The Mindful Investor.

He's also President and Chief Strategist at Sierra Alpha Research LLC, a boutique investment research and consulting firm focused on managing risk through market awareness. He combines the strengths of technical analysis, behavioral finance, and data visualization to identify investment opportunities and enrich relationships between advisors and clients.

Dave was previously a Managing Director of Research for Fidelity Investments in Boston, a Past President of the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) Association, and started in the financial industry just after the March 2000 market top at Bloomberg in New York.

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The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice. Some of the links in this description and in the video may be affiliate links, which means you pay nothing more and it helps me to make Market Misbehavior awesome! As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. For full disclaimer, please see our website: www.marketmisbehavior.com/disclaimer

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All Comments (21)
  • @agiaco
    Watching the market's ups and downs shows how quickly things can change. In the market, strategic, informed trading isn't a choice; it's a must. Remember, caution is as crucial as ambition here. This dedication to continuous learning is inspiring...managed to grow a nest egg of around $87k to a decent $246k... I'm especially grateful to Loraine Souvenir tactics and strategies.
  • I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Natalie Strayer.
  • @JoonasPalin
    With trading, technical analysis skills alone are not enough; discipline and emotional maturity are also crucial for success. The saying "time in the market vs. timing the market" is a good mindset to have during market fluctuations. Thanks to Renee Gilman insights, daily trade signals, and my dedication to learning, I've been increasing my daily earnings. Keep it up.
  • @adam3us
    The key is risk analysis. The markets are and has always been unpredictable. Thus the important point is not how much one might make but what one could lose. trading and holding on speculative stocks/Crypto and even great stocks can test ones ability in the arena of our ability to control ones loss aversion bias…buy high sell low…The market is overvalued by almost all measures like the CAPE and Buffett indicator. Speculation is high with things like meme stocks (are they dead yet?), our kitty dude, Ai dreaming and all.... It is all about how much one can lose during times like these. Does that mean don't invest, of course not but one must access the risk and have a way out if the tide goes out.....I've been engaged in active trading and managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.6B'tc to a decent 24B'tc....I'm especially grateful to Francine Duguay, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
  • @Aaliyahsaad
    Hit 200k today. I'm really grateful for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 14k in May
  • I’m 52 hoping to end the rat race by 60 with above $1M. I know money is a liability to be exchanged for assets with real value like real estate (properties for rent) stocks (dividends) bonds (interest) But, what is it with bitcoin? I hear a lot about it and I'd love to diversify my portfolio.
  • @quietStorm247
    Mr. Keller, it would really help if there were a way to block the scammers trying to lure people away to other social media sites.
  • I like the abc looking pattern on xlre daily. It's a good green candle or two away from trending (per adx) on the daily
  • @har8397
    Great analysis. Personally, I don't get cute with plays by sectors. Since I was a kid I'd seen too many money managers mia culpa interviews explaining away why their binary choice didn't play out and left them vastly underperformed. Always seemed like a tool in a money managers kit to pretend there was a reason to pay them 2/20. I'll stick with ETFs and tech for the main dish and occasional seasoning like tsla or tlt as the opportunity calls. I agree we're getting an 8 to 12% correct in early August through October. I'm closing half my VAR end of July
  • I have been watching at least 1-2 of your videos every week and I love your perspective and learn a lot. I think for the rest of the year, gold/silver along with GDX, SLV, etc will be the top performers. What do you think?
  • Dave, are these relative strength sector charts provided to StockCharts members in the preset "DK-morning" charts folder(s)?
  • @BlissRobert
    I could not care less about stocks or sectors! My trading system is for trading SPY options only. Right now I am fully invested in high delta SPY calls, and I do not expect a major reversal for at least a year or two.
  • very valuable information on sector trends. Thank you. Since the mag 7 is such a big contributor to the overall market why don't we separate them out against the entire market when looking at asset allocation modeling. Its all good when riding the rocket ship to the moon only because it helps elevate all other stocks. So the higher they go it just over values the entire market?? Crazy. The only thing to stop this market frenzy F.O.M.O. is for The large stockholders of mag 7; State Street, Blackrock and all other big institutionals owners to start selling. Since Nov 23 that has not happened. Their greed is what will eventually cause the market downturn.
  • @solaron99
    Awesome sector analysis! 🙋🏼‍♂️ Question: why is the XLP (consumer staples) showing weakness when Costco, Walmart and Colgate have seen new record highs?
  • I'm thinking we hit the short-term top today, especially looking at the NASDAQ close 😮 Today was the day to buy some insurance